According to Zhuo Chuang Consulting, this week, the total pulp inventory in Qingdao Port (601298), Changshu Port, Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port (600717) and Baoding area increased by 2.7% compared with last week, which is the second consecutive week.
The port wood pulp inventory has risen for 3 consecutive weeks. In July, China’s pulp imports continued to fall month-on-month and remained low year-on-year. The impact of the reduction in shipments from overseas pulp mills on the Chinese market supply has not yet ended. Chile’s softwood pulp exports to China in July It is still low, and the actual quotation situation of mainstream manufacturers is still unclear. According to the previous quotations, the delivery cost of BSKP in the third quarter of China is still relatively high, and the increase in imports is limited.
Institutional view
Shenyin Wanguo Futures:
The trend of pulp night market is still weak. In July, the domestic pulp import volume continued to decline, and the short-term supply side still has some support, and the contract in recent months is expected to hardly fall deeply. The latest quotations for softwood pulp have been lowered, and the support from the cost side has weakened, and the space for pulp prices to decline has gradually opened up. Domestic downstream has low acceptance of high-priced raw materials, and the profit of finished paper remains at an extremely low level. Against the background of macro weakness, the future demand for pulp is not expected to be too optimistic. The demand for papermaking in Europe and the United States has released a weak signal. The downward pressure on the far-month contract is relatively large, and the 01 contract is considered to be bearish.
CSC futures:
The internal and external market presents a consistent Back structure, and pulp is likely to enter a downward channel in the future, but the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations still exists objectively. The fact that the supply is tight will lead to a rapid increase in the near-month contract entering the delivery month. The energy shortage crisis and the recovery of the global supply chain will take time. In the short term, the global pulp quotation is expected to be slowly lowered. Corresponding to the domestic market, the decline of the pulp contract in recent months will be temporarily supported by the firm quotation of the external market.
